Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES). President Donald Trump takes part in a small business summit in the East Room of the White House on May 4, 2026.

What’s Happening

The question of whether the US strike 13 countries in calendar year 2026 hinges on a rapidly widening menu of potential targets, with Iran and Cuba both moving from rhetoric to operational planning in May. On May 18, 2026, President Donald Trump announced via Truth Social that he was postponing a planned military strike on Iran originally scheduled for Tuesday, May 19, at the request of regional leaders who urged him to allow further diplomatic negotiations to play out. The pause does not cancel the operation — Trump framed it as a delay contingent on Tehran's response — and Pentagon assets remain pre-positioned in the Gulf, leaving the strike option live through the summer. [Politico, May 18]

Three days later, the administration opened a second front. On May 21, 2026, Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly raised the prospect of US military intervention in Cuba, one day after the Justice Department unsealed criminal charges against former leader Raúl Castro. Trump told reporters that prior presidents had weighed Cuba operations "for decades" but that "it looks like I'll be the one that does it," while Rubio said he was doubtful diplomacy with Havana remained viable. The pairing of an indictment with overt military threats marks a sharp escalation beyond the existing sanctions regime, and signals Cuba has joined Iran, Venezuela, and the Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen on the short list of plausible 2026 kinetic theaters. [AP, May 21]

For the US strike 13 countries in 2026 to resolve YES, the operational tempo would need to expand dramatically beyond the four or five countries currently in active discussion — a threshold that would require Washington to layer counter-narcotics strikes in Mexico, Colombia or Venezuela on top of any Iran and Cuba operations, plus continued action against Houthi positions and ISIS remnants in Syria and Somalia. The 94% NO pricing reflects the historical base rate: even at peak post-9/11 operational tempo, US forces rarely struck more than six to eight sovereign nations in a single calendar year. Near-term catalysts include the outcome of the deferred Iran strike window, any Venezuelan response to ongoing Caribbean naval deployments, and whether the Cuba threat materializes into kinetic action before year-end. [Politico, May 18]

Traded on Polymarket — $91K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($91K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 6c YES.