Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (26% YES). Latest US military strike on alleged drug boat kills 3 in eastern Pacific.
Up from 24% to 26% since 2026-04-17 (+2pp)
Traded on Polymarket — $106K Volume
Polymarket prices this at 26c YES with $106K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.