Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 60%: Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026. Currently, markets are divided (60% YES, 40% NO). Maricopa County confirms 3 new measles cases; likely infected locally.

What’s Happening

Nassau County health officials issued a public warning on May 10, 2026 after confirming a second case of measles on Long Island within days, with potential exposure at a popular Italian restaurant. The alert identified 388, an upscale eatery in Roslyn Heights, where a New York City resident infected with the virus dined on May 3 between 7:15 p.m. and 10:30 p.m., potentially exposing other patrons. Officials advised anyone present during that window to monitor for symptoms, which typically appear 7 to 21 days after exposure. The Long Island cluster adds to a growing list of U.S. transmission events that have driven attention to whether there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026. [New York Post, May 10]

In Arizona, the Maricopa County Department of Public Health confirmed additional cases on May 6, 2026, bringing the county's 2026 total to 14, with officials noting no travel history or known exposure source — indicating sustained local transmission. The East Valley outbreak, centered on Mesa, has seen the county's case count double over the past month, with health authorities reporting that 96% of cases involve unvaccinated individuals. Maricopa officials have published an expanding list of exposure sites across the East Valley and warned of ongoing risk during the current outbreak. The county's pace of community spread is a key factor in projections of whether there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026. [AZ Family, May 6]

The Maricopa cluster joins active outbreaks tracked across multiple states, with the Phoenix New Times reporting that the county is in a record-breaking measles year and that exposure sites continue to multiply. Public health officials emphasize that local transmission without identifiable travel links signals broader community vulnerability, particularly in areas with lower vaccination coverage. The forward outlook depends on whether outbreak containment in New York, Arizona, and other affected states slows transmission before summer travel accelerates spread — a critical variable in whether there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026. Health departments continue to publish exposure notices and urge MMR vaccination for those without documented immunity. [Phoenix New Times, May 6]

Traded on Polymarket — $50K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($50K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 61c YES.