Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 24%: Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (24% YES). As of August 6, 2026, 2,465 confirmed\ measles cases were reported in the United States in 2026.

What’s Happening

As of August 6, 2026, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has confirmed 2,465 measles cases nationwide for the year, with 2,449 of those reported across 47 jurisdictions. The figure represents a dramatic acceleration from the 1,792 cases recorded by late April, when a record-breaking outbreak along the Utah-Arizona state line had already ballooned to more than 600 confirmed infections. The CDC currently tracks 38 active outbreaks—defined as three or more related cases—compared with 48 for all of 2025, and notes that 93% of patients are unvaccinated or have unknown vaccine status. The trajectory raises the question of whether there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026, a threshold that would mark the highest annual total since the disease was declared eliminated in 2000. [CDC, Aug 07]

The current pace of case accumulation is historically unprecedented. In February 2026, the U.S. surpassed 1,100 cases in just two months, driven largely by a South Carolina outbreak exceeding 600 infections. By late July, Utah officials reported 514 cases in 2026 alone as part of a 12-month outbreak totaling 711, with only 8% of patients hospitalized and 90% of those unvaccinated. The CDC added nearly 100 new cases in the first week of August alone, with all but 16 locally acquired. If weekly additions continue at that rate—roughly 100 cases per week—the cumulative total would approach 3,000 by early October, leaving the question of whether there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026 dependent on sustained transmission through the fall and winter months. [CIDRAP, Aug 07]

The stakes extend beyond raw case counts. The Pan American Health Organization met in April to formally assess whether ongoing spread has threatened the U.S. elimination status, a designation held since 2000. Pediatric hospitalizations remain a concern: 20% of 2026 cases involve children age 5 and under, and 68% involve individuals up to age 19. The 7% hospitalization rate this year, while lower than 2025's 11%, still translates to roughly 170 hospitalized patients at current totals. The CDC's weekly surveillance reports will be the primary data source for determining whether there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026, with the next milestone—3,000 cases—potentially reached by late September if current transmission dynamics hold. [CNN, Feb 27]

Traded on Polymarket — $228K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 24c YES with $228K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.