Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 9%: Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (9% YES). Strait of Hormuz transits increase slightly as Iran, US.

What’s Happening

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial shipping following the closure tied to the ongoing Middle East conflict, with daily transit counts collapsing from historical norms above 50 vessels per day to single-digit figures in mid-May. Daily transits fell to roughly 11 on Saturday, May 16 and just 8 on Sunday, May 17, with maritime traffic dominated by Iranian-linked vessels and few notable foreign-affiliated movements. Reports indicate Iran has launched a Bitcoin-backed insurance program aimed at incentivizing shipping companies willing to transit the waterway, though uptake has remained minimal. The question of whether there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31 hinges on a dramatic reopening that current shipping data does not support. [Insurance Journal, May 19]

Transits did tick modestly higher the week of May 18 as Iran-US negotiations continued, though analysts at Vespucci Maritime noted that none of the vessels transiting were container ships and that overall volumes remain a tiny fraction of pre-conflict levels. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Navy publicly claimed it had "established a safe route for the continuity of international trade," part of an ongoing effort to assert operational control over the waterway and drive a wedge between US and Chinese interests. Independent maritime tracking has not substantiated Iran's claims of meaningful traffic recovery, and foreign carriers remain reluctant to expose hulls and crews to the contested chokepoint without coordinated security guarantees from Washington and Tehran. [Maritime Executive, May 22]

Knock-on effects continue rewiring global crude flows: Panama Canal tanker transits rose 8% year-on-year to 38 vessels per day per Bimco data, as US energy exports to the West Coast and Asian markets surged to fill the Arabian Gulf supply gap. CMB.Tech's Joris Daman noted the closure has reshaped fleet sizing, regional export volumes, and trade routes, though the market has found a new equilibrium resembling pre-conflict tightness. For there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31, traffic would need to roughly triple from current single-digit levels within the next week — a trajectory inconsistent with the blockade posture maintained by both US and Iranian forces. [Seatrade Maritime, May 22]

Traded on Polymarket — $70K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($70K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 9c YES.