Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?'?

As of October 2026, prediction markets price this at 27% YES on Polymarket with $501K in total trading volume.

NO

73c

YES

27c

As of August 31, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?” at 27% YES with $501K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 47%: Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026. Currently, markets are divided (47% YES, 53% NO).

Down from 63% to 27% since 2026-07-31 (-36pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $501K Volume

Trade this market on Polymarket →

OddsShift analysis: up to 5 AI models + 166 tracked wallets on every market with smart-money data. Verdict track record published on the accuracy page.

No verdict on this market

None of the 166 tracked wallets holds a position here, so the Radar makes no call — price, volume and news above are live. When a tracked wallet takes a position, this page gets a verdict.

Related Markets

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

As of October 2026, Polymarket prices this at 27% YES with $501K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.