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Resolves: Jan 2027 3 months left Volume: $500K

Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

NO
58c
YES
42c

As of August 31, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?” at 42% YES with $500K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 47%: Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026. Currently, markets are divided (47% YES, 53% NO).

Down from 68% to 42% since 2026-06-16 (-26pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $500K Volume

Trade this market on Polymarket →
OddsShift analysis: up to 5 AI models + 166 tracked wallets on every market with smart-money data. Verdict track record published on the accuracy page.

No verdict on this market

None of the 166 tracked wallets holds a position here, so the Radar makes no call — price, volume and news above are live. When a tracked wallet takes a position, this page gets a verdict.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
As of September 2026, Polymarket prices this at 42% YES with $500K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.