Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES). Trump says Iran’s enriched uranium would go to US under emerging deal.

What’s Happening

President Donald Trump stated on May 6, 2026 that Iran’s enriched uranium would be transferred to the United States under an emerging framework, marking a significant shift in the administration’s stance on Tehran’s nuclear program. According to Israeli officials briefed on the talks, the emerging deal includes Iran’s agreement to remove its 60% enriched stockpile, halt enrichment for 15 years, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, Trump’s public remarks did not specify whether the transfer of enriched uranium constitutes a permanent concession or a temporary measure, leaving ambiguity around the core question of whether Trump will agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31. The president’s statement came alongside a social media post threatening “bombing” if Iran does not accept the reported terms, underscoring the high-stakes deadline pressure on the negotiations [Ynetnews, May 6].

Despite the apparent progress, Iran has not made firm commitments on nuclear concessions, according to a May 3 special report from the Institute for the Study of War. Axios reported on May 2 that Tehran offered to conduct a month of nuclear negotiations only if the U.S. and Iran first reach an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz and an end to the war. Al Jazeera further noted that Iran offered to “discuss the idea” of pausing enrichment for “up to” an unspecified period, but stopped short of a binding pledge. This conditional posture suggests that Trump’s willingness to agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31 remains contingent on parallel security guarantees, including the reopening of the strait and a ceasefire. The May 31 deadline, while not officially confirmed by either government, has become a focal point for market participants tracking the political timeline [Institute for the Study of War, May 3].

The political stakes are amplified by Trump’s public ultimatums and the lack of a finalized legislative or executive framework. On May 1, Trump stated he was “not satisfied” with Iran’s latest proposal, which was submitted through Pakistani mediators on April 30. A regional source told Axios that U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff sent amendments to Iran on April 27, calling for specific nuclear rollbacks. CNN reported on May 1 that Trump rejected a previous version of Iran’s peace proposal and posted a mocked-up image of himself holding a gun on Truth Social, telling Iranian leaders to “get their act together.” The absence of a formal vote or congressional resolution on the matter means the decision rests entirely with the executive branch, making Trump’s personal posture the decisive factor. Whether Trump will agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31 hinges on Iran’s next formal response, expected within days, and the president’s willingness to accept a phased rather than immediate halt to enrichment [CNN, May 1].

Traded on Polymarket — $94K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($94K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 12c YES.