Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 28%: Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (28% YES). The Latest: Trump threatens bombing if Iran doesn’t reopen strait amid report of deal to end the war.

What’s Happening

President Donald Trump told reporters on May 8 outside the White House that he expected a response from Tehran "tonight" on a one-page memorandum of understanding designed to anchor a broader treaty negotiated at a later stage, the latest procedural milestone in talks that would have to clear before any trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by may 31 scenario could materialize. The MOU follows a May 6 Truth Social post in which Trump warned that "the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before" if Iran refuses to accept terms that include a moratorium on Iranian attacks and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to oil and natural gas shipments. [New York Post, May 9]

The diplomatic posture hardened on May 2 when Trump publicly stated he was "not satisfied" with Iran's latest offer, transmitted via Pakistani mediators, and followed up on May 3 by saying he "can't imagine that it would be acceptable." Axios reported the same day that Tehran proposed a one-month nuclear negotiation window contingent on a Hormuz agreement and an end to hostilities, while Al Jazeera reported Iran would only "discuss the idea" of pausing uranium enrichment — language U.S. officials read as non-committal. The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Iran has made no firm concessions on its nuclear program, a structural obstacle to any sanctions package the administration could justify domestically. [NYT, May 3]

Domestic political pressure is asymmetric: Trump's approval has been pressured by elevated U.S. gasoline prices tied to Iran's chokehold on Hormuz, while Iranian leadership faces civilian suffering from the continuing conflict, framing the standoff as an endurance contest. U.S. officials told reporters the two sides were "very close" to a peace deal, an assessment Tehran publicly rejected, and no agreement had been struck as of May 7. With fewer than three weeks remaining before May 31, the sequencing problem is acute — any trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by may 31 outcome requires the MOU signed, a Hormuz reopening verified, and Treasury OFAC licensing drafted, a procedural chain that historically runs weeks rather than days even when both sides are aligned. [Slate, May 7]

Traded on Polymarket — $59K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($59K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 28c YES.