AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 5c |
90%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 30c |
40%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 7c |
82%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 20c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 15c |
80%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 14c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money skewed decisively short: NO entries at 54c reflect early conviction that Trump would not concede relief by May 31, and the 39c drift their way validates the thesis. The lone YES position at 15c looks like a late lottery ticket rather than informed positioning, signaling continued downside pressure toward resolution.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x162f..8d | MM | NO | $5.0K | +57% | |
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | YES | $1.0K | 0% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$3,189 on $6.0K capital deployed (avg +53.3%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 15c | $818.9K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 14c | — | ✓ matched |