Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 7%: Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (7% YES). Updated May 6, 2026 at 10:05 AM EDT.

What’s Happening

The prediction market assessing whether former President Donald Trump will agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31 currently sits at just 7% YES and 93% NO, reflecting deep skepticism among traders. This low probability follows a dramatic escalation on May 6, 2026, when Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced that ships could now pass through the Strait of Hormuz under unspecified procedures, after Trump paused a U.S. military effort to guide merchant vessels through the strategic waterway. The move came as Iran is reviewing a U.S. proposal, with Trump threatening renewed bombing if no deal is reached, creating a volatile standoff that directly impacts the likelihood of a formal agreement on transit fees. [Interlochen Public Radio, May 06]

The core political question—whether Trump will agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31—hinges on ongoing diplomatic back-and-forth mediated by Pakistan. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei confirmed on May 6 that Tehran is assessing the Trump administration’s latest proposal and will relay its response through Pakistan. This procedural milestone is critical because any agreement would require Trump to formally accept a fee structure for vessels transiting the waterway, a move that would mark a significant shift from his previous hardline stance on Iran. The 93% NO probability suggests traders view the May 31 deadline as too tight for such a complex negotiation, especially given Trump’s concurrent threats of renewed bombing. [Aspen Public Radio, May 06]

Looking ahead, the market’s outcome will be determined by whether Trump and Iran can finalize terms before the May 31 cutoff, with the next key event being Iran’s formal response to the U.S. proposal via Pakistan. The Revolutionary Guard’s announcement of safe passage under Iran’s regulations effectively establishes a de facto fee regime, but a binding political agreement remains elusive. Traders are likely weighing the procedural hurdles—such as the need for congressional notification or executive action—against the strategic imperative to avoid a military confrontation in the Strait, which handles about 20% of global oil transit. The 7% YES probability indicates that while a last-minute deal is not impossible, the current trajectory strongly favors no agreement by the deadline. [Little Rock Public Radio, May 06]

Traded on Polymarket — $54K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($54K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 7c YES.