AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 31c |
38%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 30c |
40%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 6c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 16c |
72%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 20c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 16c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 20c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
One wallet at 24c YES is noise, not signal — too thin to call smart-money positioning, and the entry is already underwater. Dominant NO flow combined with absent tier-1 YES accumulation reads as the market pricing the unfreeze as a non-event before deadline, with no contrarian alpha defending the long side.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | YES | $1.4K | -13% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,400 on $1.4K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 16c | $904.5K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 20c | — | ✓ matched |