As of September 17, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?” at 5% YES with $759K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 5% probability to: will trump pardon ghislaine maxwell by end of 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 10c vs market 5c. BUY NO at 5c — models see 5c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 75c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 95c | 82% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 62% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 92c | 88% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 95c | 92% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (75–98c vs 95c). Kimi Macro leads with 92% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 90c — market prices it at 95c. 5-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 86c, signaling conviction that Trump will not pardon Maxwell by end of 2026 and positioning as smart money on the dominant side. That entry near the top of the NO range suggests the wallet sees the 5c YES price as overvalued rather than a value opportunity, reinforcing downward pressure on YES. With only one wallet tracked, the signal is thin but directionally consistent with the market's overwhelming NO lean.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x1c1e..e7 | MM | NO | $1.4K | +10% |
With YES at 5c, every YES position is underwater while all NO entries at 86c are in profit, creating a lopsided P&L structure that favors the bearish side. The 86c NO entry implies the market has already priced a near-certain no-pardon outcome, leaving little room for further NO upside but substantial downside if sentiment shifts. This asymmetry means NO holders are sitting on gains but face capped returns, while YES buyers at 5c are effectively pricing a tail-risk bet with no current support.
Polymarket prices YES at 5c with $759K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 10c. 5-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $759K |
| Our Model | 10c | — |