Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES). Iran's supreme leader pledges revenge for his father's assassination amid Trump death threats.
The market on whether Trump will talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31, 2026 sits at 5% YES against overtly hostile conditions between Washington and Tehran. Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, surfaced Saturday on his Telegram channel to vow that revenge for the February 28 assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, "will most certainly be carried out." The younger Khamenei, who was reportedly severely wounded in the same US-Israeli airstrikes that obliterated his father's Tehran compound, has not appeared in public since — his statement landed amid weeklong state funeral ceremonies. Any near-term prospect of Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31 is undercut by that pledge and by Tehran's denial that it is seeking negotiations. [Axios, Jul 11]
The rhetoric has escalated in parallel. Trump declared that "1,000 missiles are locked and loaded" should Iran assassinate or attempt to assassinate the sitting US president, adding the military was prepared "to completely decimate and destroy" the country. Israeli leadership has signaled readiness to strike Iran again even as US negotiators traveled to Oman, underscoring that back-channel diplomacy and open threats are running concurrently. The competing tracks make a direct Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31 exchange a low-probability event on the current timeline. [Fox News, Jul 11]
Longer term, the calculus is less absolute. The BBC's Jeremy Bowen argued that "for all his bluster, Trump has no better option than talks with Iran," noting Washington has failed to break the regime's core demands, starting with control of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Whether that logic produces any leader-level contact before year-end remains the open question the market prices near zero. Watch the Oman channel and any shift in Tehran's public posture as the next signals. [BBC, Jul 8]
Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($76K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 5c YES.
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