Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 40%: Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026. Currently, markets are divided (40% YES, 60% NO). One top-tier poll reported an approval rating of 34% for President Trump — a record low less than halfway through his second term.

What’s Happening

President Donald Trump's approval rating fell to 34% in the latest Economist/YouGov poll conducted May 22-26, marking a record low less than halfway through his second term, with disapproval climbing to 59%. The survey of 1,520 U.S. adults showed a four-point drop from the prior reading of 37%/57%, while Emerson College's May poll registered 39% approval against 55% disapproval. The question of whether Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026 has now been answered affirmatively across multiple top-tier surveys, including American Research Group, Quinnipiac, and a New York Times/Siena College poll released in late May. [Newsweek, May 28]

A follow-up YouGov/Economist poll released June 2 showed Trump's overall approval at 35% against 61% disapproval, a net rating of -26, with the figure among independents collapsing to 21% approval versus 71% disapproval — a record low in that cohort tracked by pollster Allen Houston. Analysts attribute the slide to a persistent cost-of-living crisis and an unpopular military engagement with Iran, prompting pollsters to revisit long-standing assumptions about the president's floor of support among his electoral base. The cluster of sub-40% readings across five major surveys within a single week represents the deepest sustained polling deficit of either Trump term. [LA Times, May 31]

Congressional Republicans have begun distancing from the administration, with the House rejecting an Anti-Weaponization Fund measure tied to White House priorities in a late-May vote. The convergence of legislative friction, the Iran conflict, and an inflation-driven approval collapse has reframed the question of whether Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026 as a near-certain threshold breach rather than a tail risk, with the Economist/YouGov series already printing two sub-35% readings in eight days. Forthcoming polling cycles from Gallup, Pew, and Marist through June and July will determine whether the 34% Economist/YouGov print stabilizes as a new baseline or marks a transitory floor ahead of the 2026 midterm election cycle. [Forbes, May 28]

Traded on Polymarket — $51K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($51K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 40c YES.