Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?

As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?” at 31% YES with $96K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 23%: Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (23% YES). According to results from now-defunct polling website FiveThirtyEight, Trump had a final approval rating of 34% when he left office in 2021.

What’s Happening

President Donald Trump’s approval rating has entered a steep decline as the 2026 midterm election cycle intensifies, with multiple major surveys now placing his job performance near or below the 35% threshold that traders are betting against. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Aug. 17, 2026 found Trump’s approval at 33%, the lowest of his presidency, while a separate Forbes report from Aug. 31, 2026 cited a Financial Times/Focaldata survey showing 35% approval against 55% disapproval. The slide marks a dramatic reversal from his 50.5% approval at the start of his term, with RealClearPolling’s aggregate now showing an all-time low of 39.8% as of late May, before the latest drops. [Reuters, Aug 17]

The erosion is driven by a confluence of economic and foreign policy pressures, including inflation at 3.4% in July and rising fuel costs tied to the ongoing conflict with Iran, according to the Financial Times poll analysis. Trump’s approval rating hit 35% in that survey, but his standing among Republicans has slipped by eight points month-over-month, signaling fractures within his base ahead of key primary filing deadlines. State-level data reinforces the national trend: a Commercial Appeal report from Sept. 3, 2026 noted Trump’s Tennessee approval rating has hit a record second-term low, with aggregators like Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin and Civiqs all tracking sub-40% figures. This marks a sharp contrast to his first-term average of 41% and his final 34% approval in January 2021, per now-defunct FiveThirtyEight data. [Commercial Appeal, Sep 03]

The question of whether Trump’s approval rating will hit 35% in 2026 now hinges on the autumn legislative calendar and the run-up to the Nov. 3, 2026 midterm vote. With Congress returning from recess, Republican leaders face a series of must-pass appropriations bills and a potential vote on Iran war funding, any of which could further depress public sentiment. Historical precedent offers a cautionary note: Trump’s approval never recovered after dipping below 40% in his first term, and the current trajectory—from 50.5% at inauguration to 33% in August—suggests continued downside risk. Pollsters note that the 39.8% RealClearPolling average from May had already factored in voter frustration, but the subsequent six-point drop in three months indicates acceleration, not stabilization. The next major data point will be the Sept. 15, 2026 batch of state polls, which will clarify whether the 35% level is a floor or a waypoint. [Forbes, Aug 31]

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