Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 30%: Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (30% YES). His worst rating, by a wide margin, is on prices and inflation: at -47.

What’s Happening

President Donald Trump’s job approval rating has fallen to new lows across multiple major polling trackers in recent months, with the latest Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted August 17, 2026 placing his approval at 33%—the lowest of his presidency. That figure sits below the threshold of 35% that this market tracks for a potential 2026 floor, and it follows a YouGov/Economist poll from March 31, 2026 that recorded a net approval of -23 with only 35% approving. The erosion is broad-based: the same YouGov survey found 58% disapprove, while a separate May 26, 2026 poll by G. Elliott Morris showed Trump’s approval on prices and inflation at just 25%, with 72% disapproving—a metric that has worsened every month in 2026, from -31 in January to -47 in May. [Reuters, Aug 17]

The trajectory matters because the market’s 30% YES / 70% NO probability for Trump’s approval rating hitting 35% in 2026 reflects a narrow window: the president has already dipped below that level in several polls, yet the question is whether he can stay there consistently through year-end. A Forbes report from July 30, 2026 noted a Reuters/Ipsos poll taken June 3-8 logged 35% approval and 63% disapproval—unchanged from mid-May and just one point above his record-low 34% in April. The August 14, 2026 Providence Journal roundup of four new national polls showed all of them clustering in the 33-35% range, with the YouGov survey conducted Aug 7-10 among 1,589 adults (margin of error ±3.2 points) confirming the slide. [Forbes, Jul 30]

What’s next hinges on procedural and economic factors that could push the number either way. The Iran war has driven gas price expectations higher—59% of respondents in the June Reuters/Ipsos poll said prices will rise further—and inflation remains the dominant drag on Trump’s approval, with his handling of prices at -47 net in May. No major legislative vote or election cycle is scheduled before the 2026 midterms, but the August 17 Oval Office event with a 16-year-old lifeguard and the child he saved was a rare positive news cycle, yet it did not move the polling needle. The market’s 70% NO probability suggests traders see the 35% threshold as a ceiling rather than a floor, but with three months left in the year and multiple polls already at or below that line, the outcome remains a live question for political analysts tracking the president’s standing ahead of the November vote. [Providence Journal, Aug 14]

Traded on Polymarket — $83K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($83K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 26c YES.