Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?

Prediction markets put the probability at 72%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May. Currently, markets see this as likely (72% YES). | WTI Crude •4 hours | 89.83 | -12.44 | -12.16% |.

What’s Happening

WTI crude plunged 12.16% to $89.83 on May 6, 2026 after President Trump paused the Hormuz Escort Plan, with Brent falling 10.50% to $98.33 in parallel. The single-session collapse erased the geopolitical premium that had carried benchmarks above triple digits for weeks, briefly putting the question of whether WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (high) $100 in May into sharper relief. Refined products tracked the move, with heating oil down 10.38% and gasoline futures off 8.20% in the same window. [Oilprice, May 6]

Prices stabilized within forty-eight hours, with WTI settling at $94.81 by May 8 as Brent reclaimed $100.10, signaling that the underlying Hormuz risk had not dissipated. Reporting confirmed the UAE was operating ghost tankers through the strait to bypass Iran's blockade, while average U.S. gasoline topped $4.50 per gallon — a near-four-year high. The persistent supply chokepoint and elevated retail pump prices kept upside pressure on the front-month contract, with each fresh disruption headline capable of pushing benchmarks back toward the level required for WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (high) $100 in May to resolve YES. [Oilprice, May 7]

Positioning data revealed institutional caution despite the elevated spot levels. U.S. producer Diamondback Energy disclosed in its quarterly filing on May 8 that it bought options to sell the WTI-Brent spread at approximately minus $42 a barrel, hedging against U.S. export ban concerns that could cap WTI relative to global benchmarks. Separately, regulators opened an investigation into $7 billion in oil derivative bets placed during the recent volatility. With roughly three weeks remaining in the contract window and WTI sitting in the mid-$90s, traders are watching Hormuz transit data, OPEC+ production signals, and any U.S. policy shift on crude exports as the next catalysts. [Reuters, May 8]

Traded on Polymarket — $60K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($60K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 72c YES.