Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?

Prediction markets put the probability at 90%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May. Currently, markets see this as likely (90% YES). Dow Opens Up After Apple Earnings Beat Expectations.

What’s Happening

Traders on the Kalshi prediction platform currently assign a 90% probability that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil will hit $105 per barrel during May 2026. This elevated expectation comes amid a sustained rally in energy markets, with front-month WTI futures trading near $96 per barrel in late April and Brent crude surpassing $107. The market's conviction reflects the ongoing impact of the U.S.-Iran conflict, which has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and kept supply constraints front and center. According to a recent CNBC report, Kalshi users also see a more than 50% chance that prices will exceed $125 per barrel this year, far above the current 2026 closing high of nearly $113 set on April 7. [CNBC, May 01]

The probability that WTI crude oil will hit $105 in May is driven by persistent geopolitical risk and a slow recovery in global supply chains. Even if hostilities between the U.S. and Iran were to end immediately, a return to normal market conditions would take months, according to Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, as reported by CNBC on April 28. That same day, oil prices edged higher as investors parsed fresh signals from U.S.-Iran negotiations, with uncertainty over a potential de-escalation keeping markets on edge. The Wall Street Journal noted on April 26 that oil was rising amid ongoing Middle East tensions, with WTI futures up 1.9% to $96.18 per barrel in early Asian trade. [CNBC, Apr 28] [WSJ, Apr 26]

Looking ahead, the path for WTI crude oil to hit $105 in May hinges on whether the current geopolitical tensions escalate or ease. Politico reported on April 28 that while U.S. oil at $100 per barrel is significant—more than $30 higher than before the U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran—it remains far below the $150 to $200 forecasts some analysts had predicted. The same article noted that after WTI crude oil hit $98 on March 13, President Donald Trump posted on social media that the U.S. "will be sending" additional forces to the region, underscoring the administration's active role in market dynamics. With the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed and negotiations ongoing, traders are closely watching for any diplomatic breakthrough or further military escalation that could determine whether the $105 threshold is breached this month. [Politico, Apr 28]

Traded on Polymarket — $54K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($54K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 90c YES.