Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?

Prediction markets put the probability at 62%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May. Currently, markets are divided (62% YES, 38% NO). | WTI Crude •11 mins | 105.6 | +3.61 | +3.54% |.

What’s Happening

WTI crude oil futures crossed the $105 threshold on May 4, 2026, settling at $105.60 after a +3.54% session driven by escalating tensions following the Moscow meeting that exposed Iran's diminished diplomatic leverage. Brent crude moved in tandem to $114.20, up 5.56%, while Murban traded at $106.50. The rally extended a multi-week surge tied to mounting concerns over Strait of Hormuz security, with WTI Midland physical grades printing at $102.50. The intraday print confirms WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (high) $105 in May was satisfied within the first trading week of the month. [OilPrice, May 4]

Prices reversed sharply on May 6, 2026, when WTI plunged 12.16% to $89.83 after President Trump paused a planned U.S. Navy escort operation through the Strait of Hormuz, easing the immediate war-premium that had inflated the curve. Brent collapsed in parallel, dropping 10.50% to $98.33, while heating oil fell 10.38% and gasoline shed 8.20%. The single-session retracement removed roughly $15 from WTI from its May 4 high, returning the front-month contract below the psychological $100 handle. Average U.S. retail gasoline nevertheless held near a four-year high above $4.50 per gallon as refiners worked through inventory acquired at higher input costs. [OilPrice, May 6]

By May 8, 2026, WTI had stabilized at $94.81, with Brent at $100.10, as the CFTC opened a probe into approximately $7 billion in concentrated oil derivatives positions accumulated during the late-April rally. Reports also surfaced that the UAE was routing ghost-tanker traffic through Hormuz to bypass Iranian interdiction patrols, sustaining a structural floor under crude even as the geopolitical premium compressed. Because WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (high) $105 in May already cleared on May 4, subsequent price action is no longer determinative for the threshold question; remaining catalysts for the month include OPEC+ guidance, Hormuz transit data, and the outcome of the U.S. derivatives investigation. [OilPrice, May 8]

Traded on Polymarket — $79K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($79K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 62c YES.