AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (6 of 7 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 32c |
36%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 5c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 35c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 25c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 20c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 18c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
The single tracked wallet's 85c NO entry signals high-confidence positioning that WTI would not breach $110 in April, a thesis now validated. With NO entries at premium pricing and zero YES smart money exposure, the directional read is unambiguously bearish. Absent a sharp oil rally in remaining days, NO holders will ride this to resolution at 100c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x33c2..18 | MM | NO | $2.2K | -6% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$2,168 on $2.2K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 20c | $3.2M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 18c | — | × missed |