Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?

Prediction markets put the probability at 52%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May. Currently, markets are divided (52% YES, 48% NO). Oil tops $115 as Iran war talks stall over the Strait of Hormuz.

What’s Happening

The prediction market for WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hitting $115 in May has surged to a 52% probability as of early May, reflecting escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. On April 29, 2026, Brent crude futures breached $115.43 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose over 3%, as negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remained deadlocked. The impasse follows stalled talks between the U.S. and Iran over a potential ceasefire, with reports indicating the U.S. could extend a blockade of Iranian ports. This has pushed oil prices to levels not seen since the early days of the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, with traders on prediction platforms now pricing in a 63% chance that WTI will cross $120 per barrel this year. [Qz, Apr 29]

The significance of the $115 threshold for WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (high) $115 in May lies in its proximity to the current closing high of nearly $113 per barrel recorded on April 7, 2026. Analysts at Templeton Global Investments have projected oil prices above $110 in the near term, though they expect a decline to $85 by year-end, citing pronounced price volatility and an uncertain demand outlook. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global oil passes, remains the central flashpoint; even if hostilities ended immediately, a return to normal market conditions would take months, according to Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates. This supply-side risk has kept markets on edge, with investors parsing every signal from U.S.-Iran negotiations. [CNBC, Apr 29]

Looking ahead, the probability of WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (high) $115 in May hinges on the outcome of diplomatic efforts and potential military escalation. On May 1, 2026, Kalshi traders indicated a more than 50% chance that U.S. oil prices will exceed the Iran wartime high of $125, reaching nearly $127 per barrel this year. However, President Trump's national security team is weighing Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which could rapidly deflate prices. Market participants are also monitoring U.S. gasoline prices, which have hit their highest levels in years, adding political pressure for a resolution. The key variable remains whether the impasse can be broken before the May contract expires, as any sustained disruption to tanker traffic through the strait would likely push WTI decisively past the $115 mark. [CNBC, May 1]

Traded on Polymarket — $55K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($55K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 52c YES.