Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES). Skip to navigation Skip to main content Skip to right column.
Oil markets experienced extreme volatility in mid-April 2026, driven by shifting geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. On Friday, April 17, prices plunged after Iran declared the vital waterway "completely open," with the U.S. benchmark WTI crude sinking 9.6% to $82.60 per barrel. This sharp decline, which briefly raised questions about whether WTI crude oil (WTI) would hit (low) $70 in April, was fueled by hopes for a sustained ceasefire and unimpeded global supply. [CNN, Fri 17]
This price stability proved short-lived. By Sunday, April 19, Iran reversed course, accusing the United States of breaching the ceasefire and restricting most ship passage through the Strait again. In response, WTI crude surged 7.5% to trade at $90.17 per barrel, erasing the prior week's losses and dramatically altering the near-term price trajectory. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for roughly one-fifth of global crude shipments, making such disruptions a primary driver for price spikes. [The Guardian, Mon 20]
The conflicting signals create a highly uncertain outlook for the final weeks of April. While the immediate geopolitical risk is sharply higher, analysts note broader fundamentals may exert downward pressure. Goldman Sachs, maintaining its 2026 average forecast for WTI at $78, cited softer demand and easing supply disruptions as balancing factors. The central question for traders is whether escalating conflict will sustain a premium or if a resolution could swiftly return focus to underlying fundamentals, making the prospect of WTI crude oil (WTI) hitting (low) $70 in April contingent on a rapid de-escalation. [KITCO, Fri 17]
Active market on Polymarket with $1.9M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 12c YES.
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