Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?

Prediction markets put the probability at 57%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May. Currently, markets are divided (57% YES, 43% NO).

What’s Happening

The prediction market for whether WTI Crude Oil (WTI) will hit a low of $90 in May currently shows a 57% probability of a "YES" outcome, reflecting persistent bearish pressure despite ongoing geopolitical turmoil. This comes after West Texas Intermediate crude fell to $100.22 a barrel on May 3, 2026, following U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement that the United States would help free ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz. The drop of more than $1 per barrel marked a significant retreat from earlier highs, as traders interpreted the intervention as a potential de-escalation of the supply disruption that had pushed prices above $113 in early April. The market's focus on a $90 floor suggests growing confidence that the conflict-driven rally may be losing momentum, even as analysts warn that a return to normal shipping routes could take months. [CNBC, May 01]

The probability of WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hitting a low of $90 in May has been shaped by a volatile mix of diplomatic signals and military developments. On April 28, 2026, oil prices edged higher as investors parsed fresh signals from U.S.-Iran negotiations, with uncertainty over a potential de-escalation keeping markets on edge. However, prices remain far below the $125 to $150 forecasts that some analysts predicted after the Strait of Hormuz closure, with WTI currently trading near $100—still more than $30 higher than before the U.S.-led military campaign began. The 57% YES probability implies that traders see a meaningful chance of prices retracing to $90 by month-end, a level that would represent a roughly 10% decline from current levels, potentially triggered by a sustained ceasefire or successful clearing of the strait. [Politico, Apr 28]

Looking ahead, the key catalyst for whether WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits a low of $90 in May will be the outcome of ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations and the pace of restoring normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. On May 4, 2026, Brent crude futures fell $1.83, or 1.69%, to $106.34 after Trump's intervention announcement, while WTI settled at $100.22. The 43% NO probability in the market reflects the view that supply risks remain elevated, as even a ceasefire would require months to fully restore market equilibrium, according to industry analysts. The broader context includes a prediction market on Kalshi showing a 63% chance that WTI will cross $120 this year, suggesting that while a short-term dip to $90 is possible, the longer-term trajectory remains bullish due to structural supply constraints. [Global Banking & Finance Review, May 03]

Traded on Polymarket — $63K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($63K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 57c YES.