Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?

Prediction markets put the probability at 61%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May. Currently, markets are divided (61% YES, 39% NO). Oil seen above $110 near term, $85 by year-end: Analyst.

What’s Happening

As of early May 2026, prediction market participants on Kalshi are assigning a 61% probability to the event that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil will hit a low of $90 per barrel during the month of May. This trading activity comes amid a volatile geopolitical backdrop, most notably the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. On May 3, 2026, oil prices fell sharply after former President Donald Trump announced U.S. efforts to free stranded ships in the strait, with WTI dropping to $100.22 a barrel. Despite that decline, the market’s elevated probability for a drop to the $90 threshold reflects persistent bearish sentiment, as traders weigh the potential for a resolution to the supply bottleneck against the risk of further escalation. [Global Banking & Finance Review, May 3]

The significance of the WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (low) $90 in May market is underscored by the widening supply deficit and elevated price forecasts from major financial institutions. On May 1, 2026, Barclays raised its 2026 Brent crude forecast to $100 per barrel from $85, citing the prolonged impasse in the Strait of Hormuz and an estimated market deficit of 6.6 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, a separate Kalshi market showed traders pricing in a 63% chance that WTI would exceed $120 per barrel this year, with some bets targeting $127. The divergence between these bullish long-term bets and the near-term probability of a drop to $90 highlights the market’s uncertainty over whether a diplomatic resolution or a demand slowdown will materialize first. [Kitco, May 1]

Looking ahead, the trajectory for the WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (low) $90 in May outcome will depend heavily on the evolution of the Strait of Hormuz crisis and broader macroeconomic signals. Analysts at Templeton Global Investments have advocated a neutral position on upstream oil equities, citing pronounced price volatility and an uncertain demand outlook, with a year-end WTI target of $85 per barrel. The May 1 rally in U.S. equities, following Apple’s earnings beat and the S&P 500’s best month since 2020, suggests that risk appetite remains intact, which could support oil demand. However, any sustained de-escalation in the strait—such as the U.S.-led ship-freeing effort—could accelerate the decline toward $90, while a failure to resolve the disruption may keep prices elevated well above that level. [CNBC, Apr 29]

Traded on Polymarket — $100K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 61c YES with $100K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.