Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

What’s Happening

The probability that WTI crude oil (WTI) hits a low of $60 in August stands at just 6%, reflecting a market that has largely priced out a sharp collapse despite mounting bearish signals. On Monday, August 3, 2026, J.P. Morgan Global Research analyst Natasha Kaneva projected that an oil surplus would emerge as soon as this month, estimating a 1.2 million barrels per day glut as Persian Gulf supply recovers to roughly 90% of pre-war volumes. Kaneva explicitly forecast a "reversion toward a $60/bbl price regime," with prices moving into the low $60s beginning in the near term, a scenario that would directly trigger the $60 threshold for WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (low) $60 in August [J.P. Morgan Global Research, Mon Aug 03].

Current pricing dynamics, however, suggest the market is far from that level. On Monday, August 3, 2026, September Nymex WTI crude oil futures were trading sharply down around $80.25 a barrel, according to Pro Farmer's market report, a level that remains roughly $20 above the $60 strike. The gap underscores how geopolitical risk premiums and supply disruptions—including ongoing Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure—have kept a floor under prices. Yet the trajectory has been downward: on June 22, 2026, the most active WTI contract for August delivery settled at $73.86, the lowest since March 2, following a 60-day pause on Iran sanctions that eased supply concerns [MarketWatch, Mon Jun 22]. That decline continued into late June, with crude settling lower on June 23 as signs of progress in the US-Iran peace deal reduced fears of supply disruptions [TradingView News, Tue Jun 23].

The key question is whether the surplus forecast can materialize fast enough to push WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (low) $60 in August. J.P. Morgan's model sees Persian Gulf supply recovering to 97% of pre-war volumes by October and near full recovery by November, implying the most significant price pressure arrives after August. Historical context shows WTI has traded in the low-$60s to mid-$70s since September 2024, with spikes to the mid-$70s in June 2025 during Israel-Iran strikes before falling back, suggesting the $60 level is a known support zone but not a frequent touchpoint [AAA Oregon/Idaho, Tue Nov 18]. With the current price near $80, a move to $60 would require a 25% decline in under four weeks—a historically steep drop that would demand both a rapid return of OPEC+ supply and a complete dissipation of geopolitical risk premiums, making the 6% probability a reflection of the steep hurdles ahead.

Traded on Polymarket — $309K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 6c YES with $309K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.