Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?

Prediction markets put the probability at 19%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (19% YES). However, given the current low prices and the outlook under pressure, we expect US crude oil production will start to soften.

What’s Happening

The question of whether WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (low) $65 in August is being tested against a volatile market backdrop, with current pricing indicating a **19% probability** of that threshold being breached. As of late July 2026, WTI crude was trading near **$93.50**, having surged from a monthly low of **$67.20**, according to market data compiled on **July 26, 2026**. This sharp rally, driven by supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions, has pushed the commodity far above the $65 level, making a drop to that mark within the August trading window a significant downward move of roughly 30% from current prices. The forward curve for WTI is notably steep, with technical forecasts for the week of **August 3–9, 2026** projecting a weekly low of **$69.92** and an average price of **$83.66**, which still remains well above the $65 strike price in question [Litefinance, Fri Jul 31].

The fundamental landscape for WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (low) $65 in August is complicated by conflicting supply and demand signals. On the supply side, the **Dallas Fed Energy Survey** indicates that producers require an average of **$65/bbl** to profitably drill a new well, a threshold that sits above the entire WTI forward curve as of early December 2025, suggesting that sustained sub-$65 prices could trigger production declines in 2027. However, the immediate reality is that US crude oil production remains elevated at **13.8 million barrels per day**, and strategic reserve releases have exceeded **104 million barrels** of the **172 million authorized**, adding to near-term supply. Meanwhile, demand-side pressures are evident, with China's daily imports falling to **6.4 million barrels per day**, the lowest since **October 2016**, which could weigh on prices if the current supply disruption premium fades [Scanx, Sun Jul 26].

Looking ahead, the path for WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (low) $65 in August hinges on whether the current geopolitical risk premium erodes. Analysts note that a US-Iran de-escalation is seen as the primary mechanism to lower gas prices, with Brent having climbed from **$70** to **$100** in just three weeks, a move mirrored by WTI's rise from **$67.20** to **$93.50**. The **August 1–2** weekend will see closed trading, with key support and resistance levels set at **$76.02** and **$87.30** respectively for **August 3**. Should diplomatic efforts succeed, a rapid unwind of the risk premium could accelerate declines, but the current technical setup suggests that even a bearish scenario would likely find support in the **$70–$76** range, far above the **$65** target. The probability of hitting that low remains low, barring a major macroeconomic shock or a sudden resolution of supply disruptions that have underpinned the recent rally [Think, Mon Dec 08].

Traded on Polymarket — $102K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 17c YES with $102K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.