Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?

Prediction markets put the probability at 61%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August. Currently, markets are divided (61% YES, 39% NO). West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil is in free fall, and the market is not waiting for confirmation.

What’s Happening

West Texas Intermediate crude oil has already breached the $70 threshold once this summer, with futures closing at $70.34 per barrel on June 24 after touching a session low of $69.63, according to CNBC. That intraday dip marked the first time WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (low) $70 in August’s immediate predecessor month, driven by easing concerns over Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions and a White House-directed probe into fuel pricing. The move followed a sharper 5.8% single-day selloff on June 16, when front-month futures tested the $75 area after Washington and Tehran signaled a draft peace framework that would lift the US naval blockade and allow Iranian barrels back to market [CNBC, Jun 24].

The supply-side narrative has intensified into early August, with President Donald Trump confirming on August 3 that Hormuz reopening dialogue could conclude “as soon as tomorrow,” sending WTI and Brent down 4.8% and 4.6% respectively to their lowest levels since July 13. J.P. Morgan’s head of oil research, Natasha Kaneva, projects the first supply surplus will emerge in August at around 1.2 million barrels per day as Persian Gulf output recovers to 90% of pre-war volumes, ultimately setting up a reversion toward a $60/bbl price regime in the low $60s. This forecast aligns with the current market question of whether WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (low) $70 in August, as the probability stands at 61% YES based on recent price action and inventory dynamics [J.P. Morgan, Aug 03].

Looking ahead, the August contract expiry and monthly inventory reports will be the key catalysts for whether the $70 level holds as support or breaks decisively lower. LiteFinance’s compilation of forecasts shows wide divergence, with some analysts projecting WTI to fall to $64.55 by August while others see a rally to $267 by year-end, though the consensus leans bearish on oversupply. The July closing price of $77.88 per WalletInvestor’s model suggests a significant downward adjustment is already priced into the market, and the reopening timeline for the Strait of Hormuz remains the single largest variable. If the waterway fully reopens and Iranian barrels flow unimpeded, the path to a sustained sub-$70 print in August appears technically and fundamentally open, with the next major support level around $69.63 from the June session low [LiteFinance, Aug 03].

Traded on Polymarket — $75K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($75K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 61c YES.