Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?

Prediction markets put the probability at 23%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (23% YES). Dow Opens Up After Apple Earnings Beat Expectations.

What’s Happening

As of early May 2026, prediction market participants assign a 23% probability to the scenario that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil will hit a low of $80 per barrel during the month. This pricing reflects a market consensus that a sharp decline to that level is unlikely, even as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East show signs of easing. The assessment comes amid a volatile backdrop: on May 3, crude prices fell more than $1 a barrel after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the United States would begin guiding commercial vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. Brent crude dropped to $106.34, while WTI settled near $100.22, suggesting that traders are pricing in a potential de-escalation of supply disruptions that had previously pushed prices higher. [Global Banking & Finance Review, May 3]

The low probability of WTI crude oil hitting $80 in May is particularly notable given the broader market context. Just days earlier, on May 1, traders on the Kalshi platform had assigned a 63% chance that WTI would cross $120 per barrel this year, with some betting on prices exceeding $125—far above the current closing high of nearly $113 recorded on April 7. That bullish sentiment was driven by ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and the risk of prolonged conflict in the region. However, the sudden shift in tone following Trump's intervention in the Strait of Hormuz has injected a new variable, with the Wall Street Journal reporting that while the U.S. effort may free outbound vessels, "we’re likely to see little inbound traffic," indicating that supply chain normalization remains uncertain. [CNBC, May 1]

Looking ahead, the trajectory of WTI crude oil and the likelihood of it hitting a low of $80 in May hinge on several factors. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations, which were reportedly underway before the Hormuz intervention, remain a key variable; any breakthrough could further depress prices by restoring normal tanker traffic. Conversely, if the blockage persists or escalates, the current 77% probability that WTI will stay above $80 could strengthen. Kitco News noted on May 4 that uncertainty over U.S.-Iran relations is clouding the rate outlook, with gold prices softening as oil rebounded in thin trade. For now, the prediction market reflects a baseline expectation that WTI will remain elevated, but the rapid policy shifts in Washington and Tehran mean that the $80 threshold is not entirely out of reach. [Kitco, May 4]

Traded on Polymarket — $247K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 23c YES with $247K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.