Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?

Prediction markets put the probability at 35%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May. Currently, markets are divided (35% YES, 65% NO). | WTI Crude •4 hours | 89.83 | -12.44 | -12.16% |.

What’s Happening

The prediction market for whether WTI Crude Oil (WTI) will hit a low of $80 in May currently shows a 35% probability of a "YES" outcome, reflecting significant bearish sentiment despite recent geopolitical turmoil. This comes after a dramatic week in which WTI crude oil prices collapsed by over 12% on May 6, 2026, settling near $89.83 per barrel, following U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement that the United States would pause its Hormuz escort plan and help free ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz. The sharp decline reversed much of the war-driven rally that had pushed prices above $100 in late April, as traders priced in a reduced risk of supply disruptions from the Iran conflict. [Oilprice, May 6]

The possibility of WTI crude oil (WTI) hitting a low of $80 in May is now being weighed against a complex backdrop of diplomatic signals and macroeconomic pressures. On May 6, 2026, the U.S. dollar hit a new 30-year low against the Israeli shekel after Trump hinted at a possible Iran deal, which typically supports higher oil prices by making dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for foreign buyers. However, the same diplomatic overtures have simultaneously eased fears of a prolonged conflict that could choke off supplies from the Middle East, with Brent crude falling below $100 for the first time in weeks. The average U.S. gasoline price also topped $4.50 per gallon on the same day, nearing a four-year high, which could dampen consumer demand and further pressure crude prices downward. [Ynetnews, May 6]

Looking ahead, the trajectory for WTI crude oil (WTI) hitting a low of $80 in May hinges on whether the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran holds and if the Strait of Hormuz remains navigable. Earlier in the month, Kalshi traders had assigned a 63% probability that WTI would cross $120 per barrel this year, and a more than 50% chance of reaching nearly $127, reflecting the wartime premium that had built up. The sudden reversal—with prices now below $90—suggests the market is rapidly repricing risk, but the 65% "NO" probability in the $80 low market indicates that most traders still believe a floor exists above that level, barring a complete collapse in demand or a swift diplomatic resolution. [CNBC, May 1]

Traded on Polymarket — $415K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 38c YES with $415K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.