Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES). Global oil output to reach pre-Iran conflict levels by end of 2026: EIA.

What’s Happening

The likelihood that WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (high) $100 in July has narrowed sharply as spot prices sit far below that threshold. WTI traded at roughly $72.38 a barrel on July 7, 2026, up 2.75% on the day, with Brent near $76.24. That leaves crude nearly $28 below the $100 mark. The context matters: oil spiked above $100 a barrel in March 2026 amid the Strait of Hormuz closure, prompting genuine fuel-shortage concerns in markets like Australia, but prices have since retreated as supply routes normalized. [OilPrice, Jul 7]

The retreat follows the June 18 agreement between the United States and Iran to reopen the strategic waterway. The EIA raised its global oil production forecast in its July Short-Term Energy Outlook, citing recovered shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and now expects global crude output and trade flows to return to near pre-conflict levels by the end of 2026. OPEC+ has already agreed to a production increase of 188,000 barrels per day, adding further supply. These loosening fundamentals weigh heavily against any scenario in which WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (high) $100 in July. [World Oil, Jul 7]

Geopolitical risk has not vanished. On July 8, Brent rallied roughly 3% to about $74 a barrel after renewed Iran-US conflict, with reports of Iran attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the US Treasury revoking authorization of Iranian oil sales. Yet the broader trajectory points lower: Citigroup is forecasting crude near $60 a barrel by Christmas, framing a potential glut rather than a spike. For WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (high) $100 in July to materialize, prices would need to climb over 38% within weeks — an outcome that would likely require a sustained, full Hormuz closure rather than intermittent tanker incidents. [Mining.com.au, Jul 8]

Traded on Polymarket — $138K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 6c YES with $138K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.