AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 27c |
46%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 6c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 10c |
80%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is unanimously short the $100 target: the lone tracked wallet holds NO at 88c and nothing on YES, signaling conviction that crude stays well below the strike through July expiry. The absence of any YES accumulation reinforces a bearish read on the tail — no tracked flow is betting on a spike, so the entry pattern points to continued mean-reversion rather than a breakout toward triple digits.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x9981..c4 | MM | NO | $3.3K | +2% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$448 on $3.3K capital deployed (avg +13.5%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 10c | $1.8M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |