Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?

Prediction markets put the probability at 74%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June. Currently, markets see this as likely (74% YES). Oil tops $100 as South Africa withdraws fuel relief, exposing motorists to a new energy shock.

What’s Happening

The question of whether WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June has moved from speculative to plausible after a violent repricing across global crude benchmarks at the start of the month. WTI futures jumped 6.66% on June 1, 2026 to settle at $93.18 per barrel, with Brent climbing 5.60% to $96.22, following confirmed U.S. military strikes on Iranian targets and an expanded Israeli ground offensive into southern Lebanon. The session followed a 2%-plus rally on May 31 triggered by initial reports of Israeli troop movements past the previously agreed ceasefire line with Hezbollah, six weeks after a fragile truce had been announced. Intraday quotes during the week showed WTI Crude trading at $93.17 and Murban Crude at $95.97, leaving the U.S. benchmark roughly $7 below the $100 threshold. [OilPrice, Jun 01]

The geopolitical stack driving the move is unusually dense. President Trump publicly demanded changes to the existing Iran nuclear framework on June 1, sending WTI up an additional 7.13% intraday to $93.59 as traders priced in the risk of a wider regional confrontation that could threaten Strait of Hormuz transit. Simultaneously, Ukrainian drones struck a Russian refinery deep behind front lines on June 1, removing further downstream capacity from an already tight Eurasian product market. Heating oil rose 5.94% and gasoline futures climbed 3.72% in the same session, signaling that the rally is feeding through the entire energy complex rather than being confined to crude headlines. [OilPrice, Jun 01]

Knock-on policy effects are already visible at the consumer level, reinforcing that the question of whether WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June carries macro consequences. On June 2, South Africa announced it was scaling back fuel relief measures as global benchmarks pushed above $100 per barrel (R1,652) on a localised basis, exposing motorists in Africa's most industrialised economy to a fresh energy shock. The next catalysts traders are watching are the OPEC+ technical review later in June, U.S. Department of Energy weekly inventories, and any escalation in Lebanon or against Iranian export infrastructure — each of which could close the remaining gap between current spot levels in the low-to-mid $90s and the $100 strike. [Business Insider Africa, Jun 02]

Traded on Polymarket — $62K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($62K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 74c YES.