AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (5 of 5 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 19c |
62%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 41c |
18%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 18c |
72%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 19c |
72%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 35c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 30c |
55%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 27c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Lone tracked wallet entered NO at 67c, a high-conviction fade of Zverev's title odds that aligns with the current 38c YES consensus. Entry well above market implies the wallet expected even steeper decay and is now riding the thesis rather than scaling. Directional read is bearish on Zverev, but single-wallet signal lacks the 2+ tier-1 anchor needed to call this structural alpha.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde04..37 | Smart | NO | $3.4K | -14% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$3,439 on $3.4K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 62c | $2.8M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 27c | — | × missed |