Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August?

Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (14% YES). , Brent was up 4.53% at $104.95, according to Bloomberg data analysed by EFE.

What’s Happening

The probability that WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits $105 in August stands at 14% YES versus 86% NO, reflecting a market that has priced in a significant pullback from the war-driven peaks of early spring. On March 16, 2026, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 4% to $94.76 a barrel after the U.S. signaled it would allow some ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz, easing the most acute supply fears tied to the February 28 U.S.-Israel attack on Iran. Just one day earlier, on March 15, WTI had closed at its highest level since July 2022, with both benchmarks up more than 40% since the conflict began. The rapid reversal from those highs underscores how sensitive the WTI crude oil (WTI) hit $105 in August scenario is to diplomatic signals and shipping lane reopenings, rather than to sustained physical shortages [Detroit News, Mar 16].

The geopolitical premium that briefly pushed Brent above $105 per barrel on March 17 — with WTI climbing 5.04% to $97.90 before the U.S. market open — has since been partially unwound, yet the underlying tension remains unresolved. By May 14, 2026, Brent futures were trading at $105.76 a barrel, while WTI lagged at $101.14, a spread that highlights the persistent discount for U.S. crude amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz risks. The April 23 analysis from Energy News Beat questioned whether $90–$95 had become the new floor for WTI, citing the International Energy Agency's slashed 2026 demand forecast to a contraction of 80,000 barrels per day and the risk of demand destruction if prices remain elevated. That demand-side caution, combined with refinery margin compression, suggests that even a modest supply disruption may not be enough to sustain a WTI crude oil (WTI) hit $105 in August outcome [Energy News Beat, Apr 23].

Looking ahead, the key variable for the August contract is whether the Trump-Xi meeting, flagged as critical for Strait of Hormuz shipping in mid-May, produces a durable de-escalation or a renewed standoff. The March 17 spike to $105 Brent was driven by war headlines, but the subsequent 2.84% decline on Monday showed how quickly those gains evaporate on any hint of normalcy. Meanwhile, the March 30 report from CoinDesk noted that WTI surging over $100 per barrel coincided with Bitcoin giving up gains, illustrating the cross-asset volatility that high energy prices inject into markets. With the IEA now projecting demand contraction and U.S. shale output remaining resilient, the 14% probability for WTI to hit $105 in August implies traders see a narrow window for a sustained geopolitical shock, not a gradual drift higher. The next catalyst will be any new sanctions, shipping insurance changes, or diplomatic breakthroughs in the weeks leading into the August contract expiry [CoinDesk, Mar 30].

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