Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?

Prediction markets put the probability at 72%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August. Currently, markets see this as likely (72% YES). have eased, causing a sharp decline in international oil prices.

What’s Happening

The question of whether WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August has been decisively answered by a brutal sell-off that began on Monday, August 3, 2026. West Texas Intermediate plunged more than 7% in early trading before closing down approximately 5.4% at $80.11 per barrel, while Brent futures fell $3.11, or 3.71%, to $80.66 after touching a session high of $86.33. The collapse came as the geopolitical risk premium faded amid renewed hopes for a US-Iran agreement, with both benchmarks falling to their lowest levels since July 13. The swift decline pushed the probability of WTI crude oil (WTI) hitting (HIGH) $80 in August to 72% YES, reflecting the market's rapid repricing of supply disruption risks [The Business Times, Aug 03].

The sell-off accelerated into Tuesday, August 4, when WTI crude fell another 5.58%, bringing its August decline to 13.27% and pushing prices to around $73.50 per barrel. Brent crude broke below the psychologically important $80 level, touching a low of $77.70, down approximately 12% for the month. The sharp drop rippled through broader markets, with US Treasury yields falling uniformly by 3 to 5 basis points while equities surged — the S&P 500 jumped 1.48% to 7,600.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 693 points to a record closing high of 53,178, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.13%. The dramatic reversal underscores how quickly the market's assessment of WTI crude oil (WTI) hitting (HIGH) $80 in August shifted from near-certainty to a contested bet [Kucoin, Aug 05].

Looking ahead, the futures curve suggests traders expect further weakness, with Brent forward prices pricing a decline to $90 by August and below $80 by December — indicating the market's base case remains that the disruption is temporary. However, uncertainty persists: Goldman Sachs has cautioned that Brent could rise to $120 a barrel if disruptions escalate, and talks to end the Iran war remain unresolved as of August 6. Crude oil dipped below $80 again on hopes of an Iran-Oman deal, but analysts note that any breakdown in negotiations could quickly reverse the slide. With the August contract now trading well below the $80 threshold, the 72% probability that WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August reflects the brief intraday touch of $82.33 on August 3, not sustained price action — leaving the final outcome dependent on diplomatic developments in the coming weeks [Moneycontrol, Aug 06].

Traded on Polymarket — $64K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($64K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 72c YES.