Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?

Prediction markets put the probability at 36%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August. Currently, markets are divided (36% YES, 64% NO). Front month Brent crude futures gained $0.71, or 0.8%, to $84.50 a barrel after tumbling 7% on Monday to their lowest level in three weeks.

What’s Happening

WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (high) $85 in August remains a pivotal threshold for energy markets, with front-month contracts trading at $81.11 on August 4 after a volatile session that saw Brent crude climb to $84.89. The price action follows a sharp 7% drop in Brent on Monday, its lowest level in three weeks, while WTI slid more than 5% in the prior session to a near one-week low. Renewed U.S.-Iran uncertainty and a reported tanker strike near Oman have lifted the Middle East risk premium, with tanker crossings through the Strait of Hormuz falling about 70% to roughly 13 per day, even as reported exports rose to 4.2 million barrels per day in the week to July 31 from 3.2 million the prior week [The Economic Times, Aug 04].

The market's current 36% probability that WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (high) $85 in August reflects a tug-of-war between geopolitical supply risks and cautious drilling sentiment. U.S. oil drillers have turned notably cautious as WTI holds near the $85 level, with gas rig activity likely to remain constrained amid an efficiency revolution reshaping shale economics. On July 31, WTI crude oil prices soared 2% to above $85 per barrel on Friday evening, capping monthly gains of over 17% and recouping the majority of the previous month’s losses, as diplomatic dialogue between the U.S. and Iran dimmed. Technical analysis shows WTI facing immediate support at $78.46 and resistance at $84.37, with a breakout potentially targeting $90.90, while downside scenarios point toward $75.77 or $67.29 [Discoveryalert, Jul 31].

Looking ahead, forecast models present divergent paths for whether WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (high) $85 in August will be sustained. LongForecast projects crude prices could rise to $93.37 in August before a correction in the fall, with the monthly range spanning $61.40 to $93.37 and a close near $88.92. In contrast, WalletInvestor offers a more conservative range of $73.35 to $80.41 for the month. The futures curve remains in backwardation, signaling tight near-term supply, while OPEC+ dynamics and the pace of Hormuz disruptions will be critical. The August 4 session saw Brent futures gain $0.71, or 0.8%, to $84.50 a barrel, while WTI rose $0.61, or 0.7%, to $81 a barrel, underscoring the fragility of the current equilibrium as traders weigh peace talk uncertainty against fresh attacks [Litefinance, Aug 03].

Traded on Polymarket — $56K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($56K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 36c YES.