US Open ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Yunchaokete Bu

Prediction markets put the probability at 90%: US Open ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Yunchaokete Bu. Currently, markets see this as likely (90% YES).

What’s Happening

The first-round match in the us open atp: rafael jodar vs yunchaokete bu pairing was set after Thanasi Kokkinakis withdrew from the 2026 US Open before stepping onto court, opening a place in the main draw. Bu Yunchaokete of China, who had lost to Federico Cina in the final round of qualifying, was reinstated as a lucky loser and will now face Spain's Rafael Jódar in the Round of 128. The Chinese player had been preparing to leave New York after his qualifying defeat before the reinstatement handed him another opportunity at the tournament. [Tennisuptodate, Sep 01]

The two players enter the contest with contrasting form and ranking profiles. Jódar is listed at ATP 13 in live standings, while Bu sits at ATP 124, moving to a live ranking near 121 after his qualifying run. The scheduled encounter, part of the ATP US Open program, is set for 2 September 2026 at 05:25 in the 1/64 stage of the draw. Recent match data shows Bu tested by strong opponents through the summer hard-court swing, including losses to Brandon Nakashima and Taylor Fritz, alongside wins over Denis Shapovalov and Alejandro Tabilo. [Tennistonic, Sep 01]

Coverage described the us open atp: rafael jodar vs yunchaokete bu draw as one of the more dangerous openers, given Bu's tour-level experience despite his lucky-loser entry. Early tallies compiled by tennis outlets leaned heavily toward Jódar, with one aggregate showing roughly 96.2% support for the Spaniard against 3.8% for the Chinese player. Robinhood's associated set-market listing noted that if the match does not begin due to injury, walkover, forfeiture or cancellation, the market resolves to a fair price, while a postponement or delay keeps it open. Attention now turns to whether Bu can convert his second chance into a competitive showing against the higher-ranked Jódar when play begins. [TennisTemple, Aug 28]

Traded on Polymarket — $131K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 90c YES with $131K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.