Prediction markets put the probability at 70%: Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo. Currently, markets see this as likely (70% YES). Author avatar Tennis Majors Mubadala Citi DC Open •Quarter-final • Completed See draw R.
The Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo semi-final is set for Saturday, August 1, 2026, following a dramatic quarter-final round in Washington. Rafael Jodar, the 19-year-old Spaniard ranked No. 24, rallied from a set down to defeat No. 4 seed Lorenzo Musetti 1-6, 6-1, 6-4 on Friday, securing his place in the last four and guaranteeing a debut inside the top 20 of the PIF ATP Rankings on Monday. Jodar’s comeback victory marked his second consecutive three-set win of the week and extended his hard-court winning streak to five matches, positioning him as the youngest semi-finalist at the ATP 500 event since 2022 [Tennis Majors, Aug 01].
On the other side of the draw, Alejandro Tabilo produced the biggest upset of the tournament on Saturday, eliminating No. 2 seed Ben Shelton 4-6, 7-5, 6-4 to reach his first ATP 500 semi-final on hard courts. The Chilean, ranked No. 30, recorded his first top-10 win of the season and his fourth career victory over a top-20 opponent, improving his 2026 record to 24-14. Tabilo’s win over Shelton also marked his first semi-final appearance at any hard-court event since the 2024 Auckland Open, and he has now won 11 of his last 13 matches on the surface, including qualifying rounds [Tennis Majors, Aug 01].
Saturday’s order of play at the Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo match is scheduled as the second semi-final on Stadium Court, following Taylor Fritz’s clash with Brandon Nakashima. Jodar leads the head-to-head 1-0, having beaten Tabilo in straight sets at the 2025 Madrid Open on clay, but this will be their first meeting on hard courts. The winner will advance to Sunday’s final against either Fritz or Nakashima, with the champion earning 500 ATP ranking points and a $412,000 prize. Jodar is seeking his second ATP title of the season after winning the Marrakech Open in April, while Tabilo is chasing his first trophy since the 2024 Mallorca Championships [ATP Tour, Jun 23].
Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($57K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 70c YES.
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