Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES). Elon Musk, left, gestures as he walks through a hallway inside the U.S.

What’s Happening

A prediction market tracking whether Elon Musk will post between 160 and 179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026 currently shows a 12% probability of the outcome occurring, with 88% betting against it. The timeframe coincides directly with the high-profile trial between Musk and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, which began on April 28 in federal court in Oakland, California. Musk has been physically present in the courtroom for both the opening day and the second day of proceedings on April 29, where he testified and faced cross-examination from OpenAI’s legal team. The trial’s intense schedule and Musk’s courtroom obligations may significantly constrain his typical social media activity, making the 160-179 tweet threshold appear unlikely to market participants. [Chicago Tribune, Apr 29]

The significance of this market lies in the intersection of Musk’s legal commitments and his historically prolific tweeting habits. On April 29, Musk testified that he "was a fool" for funding OpenAI, and his cross-examination by attorney Steven Molo was described as combative, with Musk accusing OpenAI of trying to "have your cake and eat it, too." These courtroom dynamics, combined with the trial’s second day running from morning into the afternoon, left limited windows for Musk to post on his X platform. Additionally, on April 22, Musk announced yet another delay for the Tesla Roadster unveiling, pushing it to "maybe in a month or so," which may further reduce his motivation for high-volume tweeting during this specific period. The 160-179 tweet range represents a moderate but not extreme posting volume for Musk, who has historically posted hundreds of times in a single week during periods of high activity. [CNBC, Apr 29]

Looking ahead, the trial is expected to continue through the remainder of the April 28 to May 5 window, with Musk’s testimony and courtroom attendance likely to remain a daily requirement. The case, which could reshape the competitive landscape for artificial intelligence, has drawn significant media attention, and Musk’s legal team is expected to call additional witnesses in the coming days. If Musk maintains his courtroom presence and the trial proceeds without unexpected adjournments, his ability to post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5 will depend on whether he chooses to tweet during breaks or after court sessions. The current 12% probability reflects market participants’ assessment that the trial’s demands will keep Musk’s posting volume well below his historical peaks, though a sudden shift in court schedule or a burst of off-hours activity could alter the outlook. [WRKF, Apr 29]

Traded on Polymarket — $169K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 17c YES with $169K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.