Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 16%: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (16% YES). May 10, 2026, 8:38 AM ET.

What’s Happening

The market on whether Elon Musk will post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026 sits against a backdrop of intense public activity for the Tesla and SpaceX CEO. On May 12, 2026, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman took the stand in Oakland federal court to testify in the civil trial brought by Musk, who is seeking approximately $150 billion in damages to be paid to an OpenAI nonprofit. Musk's complaint also requests the removal of Altman and Greg Brockman from leadership and the unwinding of OpenAI's for-profit restructuring. Prior testimony in the case has come from Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, with the courtroom proceedings drawing daily coverage that has historically correlated with elevated posting activity from Musk on X. [NPR, May 12]

Simultaneously, Musk is scheduled to join President Donald Trump on a high-stakes diplomatic trip to China, alongside Apple CEO Tim Cook, the CEO of Boeing, and senior executives from Meta and major financial firms, according to an administration official. The delegation is aimed at lobbying President Xi Jinping to direct fresh investment toward the United States. The trip marks a notable reconciliation between Trump and Musk following their public falling out in early 2025, when Musk had called for Trump's impeachment and the president had floated deporting his former head of DOGE. Foreign trips have, in past tracking windows, produced bursts of posts from Musk covering both policy commentary and business announcements. [Reuters, May 11]

The question of whether elon musk post 100-119 tweets from may 12 to may 19 falls within a specific volume band, rather than a directional bet — the market resolves NO both if Musk posts fewer than 100 or more than 119. On May 10, 2026, Musk publicly endorsed Warren Buffett's so-called five-minute plan to address the national debt, aligning himself with Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The combination of the OpenAI trial, the China delegation, and ongoing fiscal-policy commentary creates conditions for either an extreme spike above 119 posts or sustained activity below the band's floor, narrowing the window for the elon musk post 100-119 tweets from may 12 to may 19 outcome to resolve YES. [Fortune, May 10]

Traded on Polymarket — $69K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($69K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 16c YES.