Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

What’s Happening

The political landscape surrounding Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan remains highly volatile as of late August 2026, with the probability of an "erdoğan out" scenario by December 31 holding at just 6%. This low figure persists despite a sustained legal campaign against the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), which began with the jailing of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu in March 2025 and escalated dramatically on May 21, 2026, when an Ankara appeals court annulled the 2023 party congresses that elected Özgür Özel as CHP leader, declaring them an “absolute nullity” and moving to reinstate his predecessor. The court actions have effectively crippled the main opposition's organizational capacity, consolidating Erdoğan's grip on state institutions ahead of any potential early election scenario [Dayan Center, Jun 15].

Erdoğan's international positioning has simultaneously strengthened, complicating any domestic push for his removal. On August 7, 2026, Erdoğan signed a joint defence agreement with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Mecca, a pact that signals deepening regional alignment [BBC News, May 22]. Just two weeks later, on August 21, Erdoğan traded sharp verbal jabs with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after Turkey formally sought an arrest warrant for the Israeli leader, a move that reinforces Erdoğan's nationalist credentials at home while drawing clear red lines with Western allies [Hindustan Times, Aug 21]. These foreign policy maneuvers provide Erdoğan with tangible political capital, making any coordinated internal challenge to his leadership significantly more difficult to execute before year-end.

The opposition's structural weakness was further exposed on July 31, 2026, when former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu announced he was stepping down from politics and dissolving his party, eliminating another potential rallying point for anti-Erdoğan forces [Al Jazeera, Jul 31]. Meanwhile, Erdoğan commemorated the July 15 democracy anniversary with a speech declaring that the Turkish people's courage on that date is "unparalleled in the history of world democracy," a rhetorical frame that casts any challenge to his rule as an attack on the nation itself [APA, Jul 25]. With the CHP leadership in legal limbo, Davutoğlu's exit, and Erdoğan's aggressive foreign policy agenda dominating headlines, the 6% probability of an "erdoğan out" outcome by December 31 reflects a political reality where no viable mechanism for his removal currently exists, barring an unforeseen health crisis or mass mobilization event.

Traded on Polymarket — $616K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 6c YES with $616K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.