Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES). A Turkish court ousts the opposition leader from his job.

What’s Happening

A Turkish appeals court in Ankara has annulled the 2023 party congress that elected Özgür Özel as chairman of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), effectively ousting him from his leadership role. The ruling, handed down on May 21, 2026, declared the congress null and void over alleged procedural irregularities, and reinstated former chairman Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as the party’s interim head. Özel, who won the CHP chairmanship in a direct challenge to Kılıçdaroğlu after the party’s defeat in the 2023 presidential election, has vowed to challenge the decision in higher courts and before Turkey’s Supreme Election Council (YSK). The move is widely seen as a significant legal victory for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has faced mounting pressure from the CHP since its landslide victory in the 2024 local elections. [Economist, May 22] [BBC News, May 22]

The court’s decision marks the latest escalation in a broader legal campaign targeting the CHP, Turkey’s oldest political faction, and comes just months after Erdoğan appointed Yılmaz Gürlek as justice minister. Gürlek, who previously served as the chief prosecutor in Istanbul, spearheaded several high-profile cases against opposition figures. Özel described the ruling as a “dark day for Turkish democracy” and framed it as part of a war of attrition waged by the president to maintain the pretense of free elections while systematically dismantling institutional checks. The CHP’s strong performance in the 2024 local elections, where it defeated Erdoğan’s ruling AK Party in major cities including Istanbul and Ankara, had raised expectations that the opposition could mount a credible challenge in the next presidential race. The ouster of Özel, however, has thrown the party into internal turmoil and raised questions about its ability to field a unified candidate. The question of whether Erdoğan can be removed from power before the end of 2026 has become a central topic of political speculation, with current assessments placing the probability of an “Erdoğan out” scenario at 10%. [Al Jazeera, May 22] [DW, May 21]

Looking ahead, the CHP is expected to appeal the ruling to Turkey’s Supreme Election Council and the European Court of Human Rights, though legal experts note that Erdoğan’s government has significantly consolidated control over the judiciary in recent years. The opposition’s immediate path forward remains uncertain, as Kılıçdaroğlu — a divisive figure who lost to Erdoğan in the 2023 presidential election — may struggle to unite the party’s reformist and nationalist wings. Meanwhile, the Turkish lira weakened and bond yields rose following the court’s announcement, reflecting investor concerns about political instability and the erosion of democratic norms. The “Erdoğan out” question will likely hinge on whether the opposition can regroup and present a credible electoral challenge, or whether internal fractures and legal setbacks will keep the president in power through the end of 2026. For now, the probability of Erdoğan leaving office by that deadline remains low, with the political landscape heavily tilted in his favor. [Traded on Polymarket — $349K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 10c YES with $349K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.