As of October 9, 2026, Polymarket prices “Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?” at 5% YES with $114K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 5% probability to: hamad bin isa al khalifa out as leader of bahrain by december 31, 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 9c vs market 5c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 75c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 97c | 88% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 96c | 82% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 88c | 68% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 90c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 95c | 92% |
7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (75–98c vs 95c). Kimi Macro leads with 92% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 91c — market prices it at 95c. 4-point gap supports YES.
The lone tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 91c, signaling conviction that Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa remains in power through 2026. With no YES entries from tracked wallets, there is no smart-money counterweight to challenge the dominant NO thesis. This positioning supports the market's 95% implied probability of NO resolution.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xcaab..dd | Retail | NO | $2.5K | +4% |
With YES at 5c, all YES positions are underwater while the single tracked NO position entered at 91c is profitable, implying the market has drifted toward the NO side since entry. The absence of profitable YES holders removes any incentive to defend the 5c level, leaving thin support for further upside. This P&L skew reinforces downward pressure on YES pricing.
Polymarket prices YES at 5c with $114K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 9c. 4-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $114K |
| Our Model | 9c | — |