Prediction markets put the probability at 59%: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31. Currently, markets are divided (59% YES, 41% NO). About The Times of Israel.
The question of whether the israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 has been thrown into doubt by a sharp escalation in the Persian Gulf. On July 14, 2026, the US military said it had reimposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports in response to Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, describing the interim ceasefire deal as unraveling. The move followed the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy announcement on July 11 that it had closed the strait and struck a Cyprus-flagged vessel, with a second vessel hit on July 12. [Times of Israel, Jul 14]
Analysts diverge on whether a formal collapse has already occurred. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed on July 13 that "the US-Iran ceasefire has effectively ended," citing more intense and consistent exchanges of fire, with the United States conducting over 300 strikes in Iran and dozens of targets hit on July 12 to degrade Tehran's ability to threaten shipping. Hawks in Washington point to Iran's strike on an American military base in Kuwait as justification for continued pressure, while Iranian officials boasted of "tripled drone capacity." Cautious observers note that whether the israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 may hinge on a technical distinction between a degraded truce and a fully abandoned one. [ISW, Jul 13]
The structural factor is the Strait of Hormuz: only six ships navigated the waterway in a 24-hour window, with over 150 vessels reportedly stranded in the Gulf, pressuring both sides toward de-escalation or wider war. Separately, US-brokered Gaza ceasefire talks faltered as an Israeli airstrike killed a family of three on July 15, adding to more than 1,100 Palestinians killed. Whether the israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 will depend on shipping access and US-Iran signaling in the coming days. [Reuters, Jul 15]
Polymarket prices this at 68c YES with $149K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.
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