Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?'?

As of July 2026, prediction markets price this at 64% YES on Polymarket with $772K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?'?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

YES

64c

36c

Prediction markets put the probability at 64%: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31. Currently, markets are divided (64% YES, 36% NO). Guterres calls for end to Gaza suffering amid US-Iran military strikes.

Currently at 64%

Traded on Polymarket — $772K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 64c YES with $772K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

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OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 1 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 36c

Smart money positioned NO.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x7c3d..6b	MM	YES	$1.9K	+6%
This Market Entered at 60c → now 64c (+6%), $1.9K on YES Activity · 2 events · Jul 21 → Jul 23 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 21BUYYES65+$8$8 Jul 23BUYYES60+$1,803$1,811 Realized— Unrealized+$102 Total Profit+$102 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (456) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All YES Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 60c. At current price 64c, all YES holders are profitable while all NO buyers are underwater. Profitable positions rarely sell early — YES side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 64c YES — $772K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 64c with $772K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 64c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	64c	$772K
Our Model	64c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

As of July 2026, Polymarket prices this at 64% YES with $772K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.