Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?
YES
85c
NO
15c
As of November 1, 2026, Polymarket prices “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?” at 85% YES with $75K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 85% probability to: israel x iran ceasefire continues through november 6?.
OddsShift analysis: up to 5 AI models + 1 tracked wallets on every market with smart-money data. Verdict track record published on the accuracy page.
PRO Analysis
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3 of 6 models estimate YES fair value above market (88–92c vs 85c). Gemini Flash leads with 75% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 89c — market prices it at 85c. 4-point gap supports YES.
Why One Model Disagrees: Grok Contrarian dissents at 62c — Consensus 85-92% YES massively underprices 5-day tail risks in a theater with repeated 2024-25 escalations (direct strikes, proxies); $75...
1 Active Wallets on This Market
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on YES at 81c, signaling conviction that the ceasefire holds through November 6. With no NO entries, there is no counter-signal from this wallet, and its early entry below current price marks it as informed positioning on the continuation outcome.
YES holders are uniformly in profit, with entries at 81c against a current 85c mark, yielding roughly 4c of open gain per share. No NO-side positions are in profit, so there is no loss-driven selling pressure from the bearish side. This profit cushion on YES reduces urgency to exit and supports the 85c level as holders have little incentive to capitulate.
Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
100%in profit
NO positions
0%in profit
Polymarket: 85c YES — $75K Volume
Polymarket prices YES at 85c with $75K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 89c. 4-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
What are the current odds for Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?
As of November 2026, Polymarket prices this at 85% YES with $75K in total volume.
Where can I bet on Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.
What does smart money say about Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?
OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.
What do AI models predict for Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 89c YES. 3 models agree on direction.
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