As of October 23, 2026, Polymarket prices “US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?” at 22% YES with $81K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 22% probability to: us-iran hormuz agreement by november 30?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moMajority of models lean NO, but not unanimous. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 89c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 66c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 82c | 62% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 38c | 42% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 80c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 88c | 78% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
5 of 7 models estimate NO fair value above market (66–89c vs 78c). Kimi Macro leads with 78% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 81c — market prices it at 78c. 3-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 76c and is now profitable, signaling smart money positioned against a Hormuz agreement well before the market repriced. With no YES entries recorded, the tracked flow is one-directional and suggests informed positioning expects the deal to fail or stall before November 30.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x12d6..a8 | Retail | NO | $4.2K | +2% |
Every YES position is underwater at 22c, while all NO entries from 76c are sitting on gains, creating strong profit-taking pressure on the NO side that could cap further downside. The absence of profitable YES holders means there is little conviction support at current levels, reinforcing the bearish drift toward NO.
Polymarket prices YES at 22c with $81K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 19c. 3-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 22c | $81K |
| Our Model | 19c | — |