Modi out by June 30, 2027?

As of November 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Modi out by June 30, 2027?” at 10% YES with $50K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Modi out by June 30, 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES).

What’s Happening

The contract asking whether Narendra Modi will be out as India's prime minister by June 30, 2027 is trading at 10% YES against 90% NO, with no fresh political reporting in the current news cycle directly bearing on the question. The most recent items surfaced under the "modi out by june 30" keyword are unrelated to national politics: the Badminton World Federation released its 2027-2028 World Tour Calendar, shifting dates for the India Open Super 750 and introducing a 3x15 scoring system, while the Tamil Nadu government extended its deadline for regularising unapproved plots and layouts to June 30, 2027 under Government Order 148. [Rediff, Jun 30]

The absence of substantive political news around the "modi out by june 30" question leaves the market anchored near its recent range, with the 90% NO pricing implying traders see little near-term risk to the prime minister's tenure. Other headlines in the feed are similarly disconnected from the contract: a LinkedIn profile for an advocate named Modi at the Calcutta High Court, a Lord's ticket ballot listing an England v New Zealand ODI on September 16, 2027, and Gujarat declaring four districts drought-hit with farm relief measures. [The Hindu, Jul 30]

What matters next for the "modi out by june 30" contract is any signal of parliamentary instability, coalition strain, or electoral disruption ahead of the 2027 deadline, none of which appears in the current reporting. The June 30, 2027 cut-off coincides with administrative deadlines such as Tamil Nadu's layout regularisation window, but those carry no bearing on the prime minister's position. With no political catalysts in the feed, the market's 10% YES reading reflects an information vacuum rather than a shift in fundamentals. [Times of India, Oct 26]

Traded on Polymarket — $50K Volume