Will Macklin Celebrini win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?

Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: Will Macklin Celebrini win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES). Sharks alternate captain Macklin Celebrini named Ted Lindsay Award finalist.

What’s Happening

San Jose Sharks center Macklin Celebrini has emerged as a legitimate contender for the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy after a historic sophomore season, though the current probability of him winning sits at just 5% according to market data. The 19-year-old phenom set a Sharks franchise record with 115 points (45 goals, 70 assists) in 82 games, finishing fourth in the NHL scoring race. His 82 even-strength points and 37 even-strength goals were the most ever by a Shark in a single campaign, while his 18 three-point efforts tied Joe Thornton for the most by any skater in the team's 35-season history. Despite these gaudy numbers, the Sharks missed the playoffs, a factor that historically weighs heavily against Hart Trophy candidates—only five players in the last 30 years have won the Hart without making the postseason. [NHL.com, Apr 28]

Celebrini's case for the Hart Memorial Trophy is further strengthened by his recognition as a finalist for the Ted Lindsay Award, voted by the NHL Players' Association as the league's most outstanding player. He joins Edmonton's Connor McDavid (138 points, NHL-leading scorer) and Tampa Bay's Nikita Kucherov (130 points) as the three finalists for that honor. Celebrini's 45 goals and 70 assists in his second NHL season place him in rare company—only Sidney Crosby (120 points in 2006-07) and Mario Lemieux (137 points in 1985-86) have posted higher point totals as teenagers. The Sharks' 5-4-1 record in their final ten games, including a three-point effort against the Vegas Golden Knights on April 15, kept their playoff hopes alive until the final week of the season. [NHL.com, Apr 28]

The 5% probability reflects the steep historical odds against a non-playoff player winning the Hart, but Celebrini's statistical dominance—including leading the NHL in even-strength scoring—gives him a legitimate argument. The NHL will announce the Hart Trophy finalists in early May, with the winner revealed at the 2026 NHL Awards in late June. Celebrini will also represent Canada at the World Championships after winning a silver medal at the 2026 Olympics, where he led the tournament with five goals. If voters prioritize raw production over team success, Celebrini's 115-point campaign—the best by a Shark in franchise history—could make him the first teenager to win the Hart since Wayne Gretzky in 1980. [Yahoo Sports, Apr 27]

Traded on Polymarket — $65K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($65K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 5c YES.