Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES). Russia already sends pipeline gas to China via Power of Siberia 1 under a 30-year supply agreement.

What’s Happening

The prospect of a Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027 remains remote, with the dual subsea systems still offline nearly four years after they were disabled. The Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines were among the earliest casualties of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with the infrastructure sabotaged in late 2022. Nord Stream 2 — a $11 billion project designed to double flows of cheap Russian gas to Germany — was never certified for use before it was damaged. Meanwhile, Europe is pressing ahead with plans to ban Russian gas imports by the end of 2027, a move that would effectively cap Moscow's energy future in the region and leave a series of stranded assets behind. [CNBC, Dec 23]

The economics matter because Europe remained a major outlet for Russian energy even as political ties frayed. From January through September 2025, roughly half of Russia's total LNG exports went to European countries — chiefly France, Belgium, and Spain — buoyed by advanced terminal infrastructure and robust demand. Losing that channel via the EU's proposed sanctions would mean pruned hard-currency earnings and a scramble for new buyers, entailing price discounts and higher logistics costs. Against that backdrop, a scenario in which a Nord Stream pipeline turned on again would require both physical repair of sabotaged infrastructure and a reversal of Europe's stated policy direction. [Ridl, Oct 24]

Russia is instead redirecting pipeline ambitions eastward. It already supplies China via Power of Siberia 1, which reached its 38 bcm capacity this year, while a Far Eastern route is expected to start operating in 2027, adding an initial 2 bcm annually before scaling to 12 bcm. Analysts note the China pivot could take a decade to fully offset lost European volumes. With repair, recertification, and demand all absent, the odds of a Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027 stay low. [Reuters, Oct 7]

Traded on Polymarket — $162K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 6c YES with $162K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.