As of September 25, 2026, Polymarket prices “Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?” at 16% YES with $60K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 16% probability to: russia military action against an eu country by december 31, 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 14c vs market 16c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 69c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 89c | 68% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 91c | 78% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 28c | 42% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 80c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 78% |
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value above market (69–98c vs 84c). DeepSeek Quant leads with 78% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 86c — market prices it at 84c. 2-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 81c, signaling conviction that Russian military action against an EU country will not occur by the deadline. With no YES entries from this wallet, there is no smart-money counterweight to challenge the bearish thesis. This positioning implies the informed flow sees the 16c YES price as overpriced relative to true odds.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xd5cc..a4 | MM | NO | $10.2K | +4% |
With YES at 16c, every YES position is underwater while all NO entries at 81c are in profit, creating a one-sided P&L picture that favors the bearish side. The absence of profitable YES holders removes any natural bid support near current levels, leaving the 16c price vulnerable to further decay. NO holders have a strong incentive to hold or add, reinforcing downward pressure on YES.
Polymarket prices YES at 16c with $60K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 14c. 2-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 16c | $60K |
| Our Model | 14c | — |