Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?

As of September 1, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?” at 10% YES with $358K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 11%: Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (11% YES). the closest ties to Israel—have denounced the idea of such a move, as has almost every other capital friendly to Israel.

What’s Happening

The question of whether Venezuela will recognize Israel by December 31 remains deeply entangled in the broader U.S.-Venezuela oil diplomacy that has defined the past year. On August 31, 2026, President Trump confirmed a deal granting the United States control over more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil, a move framed as a way to double U.S. reserves and lower gas prices amid the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Venezuela’s interim President Delcy Rodríguez hailed the agreement as an economic revival, yet the diplomatic quid pro quo—including any potential shift on the question of Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31—has not been publicly articulated by either side [Democracy Now!, Aug 31].

The backdrop to this market is a series of escalating U.S. military actions against Venezuela, beginning with strikes on December 31, 2025, which critics described as economic asphyxiation aimed at securing oil assets. A separate CIA-linked strike on a Venezuelan dock, which Trump claimed was used by drug smugglers, was reported by AP sources on the same date, coinciding with a Mar-a-Lago meeting between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on December 29, 2025. That meeting signaled close coordination between Washington and Jerusalem on multiple fronts, but no public statement linked Venezuelan recognition of Israel to the oil deal or to security cooperation. Analysts note that while the U.S. has leverage over Caracas through sanctions relief and oil revenue, the Maduro-aligned government has historically used recognition of Israel as a bargaining chip tied to broader regional alignment, not as a standalone concession [NPR, Dec 31].

Looking ahead, the structural factor that will determine whether Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31 is the durability of the U.S.-Venezuela oil framework under the shadow of the Iran war. Foreign Policy’s 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2026 lists Venezuela as a flashpoint, noting that even U.S. allies with the closest ties to Israel have denounced unilateral moves in the region, and Caracas has shown no inclination to break from that consensus. The interim government under Delcy Rodríguez faces domestic resistance to U.S. strikes, which complicates any overt diplomatic realignment with Israel. With the deadline approaching, the probability of recognition remains low unless Washington explicitly ties the oil deal’s continuation to a formal Caracas-Jerusalem rapprochement—a condition that has not appeared in any official communiqué as of late February 2026 [Foreign Policy, Feb 13].

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