SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?

Prediction markets put the probability at 92%: SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO. Currently, markets see this as likely (92% YES). Poll: Most Americans believe Supreme Court avoids ruling against Trump.

What’s Happening

The prediction market assessing the likelihood that the Supreme Court strikes down Trump's birthright citizenship executive order currently shows a 92% probability of the order being invalidated, reflecting widespread anticipation of a ruling against the administration. This high probability aligns with recent polling data: a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in late April found that a majority of Americans oppose ending birthright citizenship, with 62% of respondents supporting automatic citizenship for all babies born in the U.S. The Supreme Court heard oral arguments in early April on Trump's executive order, which aims to restrict birthright citizenship to children of U.S. citizens and legal permanent residents. During those arguments, President Trump publicly criticized the conservative justices he appointed, accusing them of asking "real bad questions" about the policy. [Reuters, Apr 26] [Newsweek, Apr 21]

The market's near-certain prediction that the Supreme Court strikes down Trump's birthright citizenship EO comes amid a broader pattern of judicial pushback against the administration. In February 2026, the Supreme Court struck down most of Trump's sweeping tariffs, a decision that did little to change public perception—a USA Today poll found that most Americans believe the justices are trying to avoid ruling against Trump. However, the court has also ruled in favor of the administration on key issues, including immigration enforcement and cuts at federal agencies. The birthright citizenship case is one of at least four major Trump administration cases still pending before the court this term, which ends in June. The procedural stakes are high: if the court strikes down the order, it would block a policy affecting millions of children born to non-citizen parents, a move that would require Congress to pass new legislation to alter the 14th Amendment's citizenship clause. [USA Today, Apr 23] [Newsweek, Apr 22]

What comes next hinges on the court's ruling, expected before the end of the term in June 2026. If the Supreme Court strikes down Trump's birthright citizenship EO, it would represent a major defeat for the president, who has repeatedly claimed the U.S. is the only country with birthright citizenship—a claim debunked by legal experts. The ruling would also have immediate political implications: a Newsweek poll showed that 92% of Democrats approve of the Supreme Court's handling of the tariff case, suggesting a partisan divide in judicial approval. The administration could respond by seeking legislative action, though any bill to alter birthright citizenship would face steep hurdles in Congress. For now, the market's 92% probability reflects a consensus among traders that the court's conservative majority—including three Trump appointees—will not uphold the order, given the constitutional text of the 14th Amendment. [Newsweek, Apr 23Traded on Polymarket — $111K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 92c YES with $111K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.