SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?

Prediction markets put the probability at 94%: SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO. Currently, markets see this as likely (94% YES). Supreme Court's final cases loom over Trump's immigration, election hopes.

What’s Happening

The U.S. Supreme Court is entering the final stretch of its 2025-26 term, with the justices racing to release decisions on the most consequential cases of the docket before the late-June recess. Among the pending rulings is the challenge to President Trump's Executive Order 14160, which sought to end automatic birthright citizenship for children of undocumented immigrants and certain visa holders. CNN reported on June 13, 2026 that the court is preparing to release major decisions on birthright citizenship, mail-in ballot counting, and transgender sports bans in the coming days, with court watchers describing the atmosphere inside the building as unusually tense. The case consolidates challenges from 22 state attorneys general and immigrant-rights coalitions that secured nationwide injunctions in lower courts. [CNN, Jun 13]

Whether SCOTUS strikes down Trump's birthright citizenship EO turns on the court's reading of the 14th Amendment's Citizenship Clause and the 1898 precedent United States v. Wong Kim Ark, which has governed the "subject to the jurisdiction" question for 128 years. NPR noted on June 9, 2026 that the court has already struck down Trump's tariff program earlier in the term, signaling the 6-3 conservative majority is willing to constrain executive overreach when statutory or constitutional text is clear. Three federal appeals courts — the First, Fourth, and Ninth Circuits — unanimously upheld the lower-court injunctions blocking the order, leaving the administration with no circuit split to leverage. Oral arguments in May 2026 saw skeptical questioning from Justices Barrett and Kavanaugh alongside the liberal bloc. [NPR, Jun 9]

The ruling on whether SCOTUS strikes down Trump's birthright citizenship EO will land alongside decisions shaping the November 2026 midterm election, including pending appeals over the administration's voter database plan, which the D.C. Circuit agreed on June 12, 2026 to fast-track. Axios reported that the final-week docket represents the most significant test of presidential power this term, with implications for immigration enforcement, voting rights, and campaign finance regulation heading into the congressional vote. A decision invalidating the order would void the policy nationwide and reaffirm jus soli citizenship as constitutionally protected, while an unlikely reversal would trigger immediate legislation from House Democrats and a wave of state-level compliance litigation. Decisions are expected by late June 2026. [Axios, Jun 10]

Traded on Polymarket — $139K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 94c YES with $139K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.