Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 43%: Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31. Currently, markets are divided (43% YES, 57% NO).

What’s Happening

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed to a near standstill in early July after the United States struck Iran for a second consecutive day, straining a fragile truce reached roughly three weeks earlier. According to trade intelligence firm Kpler, just 13 tankers crossed the Strait on Wednesday, July 8, compared with an average of 33 per day over the previous week. Observable movements were largely confined to an Iran-approved route nearer the waterway's northern edge, while the US-supported Omani corridor sat empty of visible traffic. The sharp drop makes the question of whether there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the strait of hormuz on july 31 directly tied to whether this suppressed flow persists or normalizes. [CNBC, Jul 09]

The measured figures may understate real activity. As the conflict has escalated, a growing number of tankers have sailed through Hormuz with their transponders switched off to reduce the risk of Iranian attack, a practice maritime analysts call "dark" transiting. Data provider AXSMarine reported that the latest strikes pushed vessels toward more opaque behavior, including AIS spoofing, as ships avoid the Omani route. U.S. Central Command maintains the Strait remains open and vessels continue moving through, even as Iran asserts control. This measurement gap complicates any clean count of whether there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the strait of hormuz on july 31. [Maritime Executive, Jul 10]

Whether the count settles inside or above the 0-to-20 band by July 31 hinges on the durability of the truce and the pace of any resumption. Loading cycles have not fully stopped: on July 6, dark ballast tankers reoccupied both crude terminals at Kharg Island, with three VLCC-class vessels of roughly 333 meters at berth, signaling a new loading window. Analyst Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates noted the oil market is not pricing in a complete closure. A return toward the pre-conflict average near 33 daily transits would lift totals above the range, while continued fighting would keep visible flows suppressed. [Marine Link, Jul 06]

Traded on Polymarket — $55K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($55K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 43c YES.