US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

What’s Happening

The question of whether the US charges Hormuz fees before December 31, 2026 stems from a proposal floated by US President Donald Trump, who vowed to reinstate a blockade of Iran's ports on the Strait of Hormuz and impose a levy of 20 percent on all cargo transiting the waterway. The plan surfaced amid a broader escalation of US and Israeli pressure on Tehran, with Iran itself moving to charge traffic through the strait as a countermeasure. Roughly one-fifth of global oil supply passes through the chokepoint, making any transit fee a potential shock to shipping economics and energy prices. As of mid-2026, the proposed levy remained a stated intention rather than an enacted policy. [Tasnim News, Jul 14]

The proposal has drawn sharp international pushback. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said on Monday, July 13, that plans by the US to impose the fee would turn the United States into a "pirate" state, framing the measure as an act of maritime piracy rather than lawful regulation. The controversy has unfolded alongside direct military action: on July 22, 2026, Trump said that every time Iran attacks a vessel in the strait, US forces would destroy a bridge or power plant, and by July 23 American forces had carried out a 12th consecutive night of strikes on Iran. Whether the US charges Hormuz fees remains legally and diplomatically contested. [Tasnim News, Jul 14]

Market conditions reflect ongoing instability rather than an implemented fee regime. Oil prices climbed to their highest level in more than six weeks on July 23, 2026, as Red Sea tensions and fresh US strikes stoked supply fears, while prices later eased as higher crude flows offset stalled US-Iran talks. On July 31, prices rose again after Iran said it had stopped ships in Hormuz. For the US to charge Hormuz fees within the resolution window, Washington would need to convert the announced levy into an enforced, operational tariff on transiting vessels — a step not yet taken and complicated by legal challenges, allied opposition, and active hostilities. [Reuters, Jul 31]

Traded on Polymarket — $101K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 6c YES with $101K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.