US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 9%: US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (9% YES). Trump rescinds 20% fee for Hormuz transits, replaces with US.

What’s Happening

On July 14, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly reversed a proposal to impose a 20% fee on all cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz, instead pivoting to a strategy of securing trade and investment agreements with Gulf states. The initial plan, announced just a day earlier on July 13, would have seen the U.S. charge a "United States Reimbursement Fee" on shipping vessels, with Trump declaring the U.S. would become "THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT" amid a renewed naval blockade of Iran. The reversal came after widespread international backlash, including Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva labeling the proposed toll as "piracy," and concerns from global shipping markets about the destabilizing impact of such a fee on energy and goods flows through the strategic chokepoint. [ICIS, Jul 14]

The abandoned fee proposal was part of a broader escalation in the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, triggered by Operation Epic Fury, a U.S.-Israeli air campaign against Iran. Trump had initially argued the 20% levy was necessary to cover the costs of providing security and safety through the volatile waterway, which handles about a fifth of global oil consumption. However, the plan faced immediate opposition from Gulf states, shipping companies, and international allies, who viewed it as an unprecedented unilateral tax on global commerce. The shift to investment deals—reportedly involving infrastructure and energy partnerships with Middle East nations—was framed by the White House as a more cooperative approach, though analysts noted it effectively shelved the direct imposition of a U.S.-administered toll. [Al Jazeera, Jul 14]

The rapid policy reversal has left the question of whether the U.S. will charge Hormuz fees by the end of 2026 highly uncertain, with current assessments placing the probability at just 9%. While Trump's latest statements explicitly renounce the fee in favor of trade deals, the underlying crisis remains unresolved: the U.S. naval blockade of Iran continues, and Iran, along with Oman, has proposed its own "voluntary" service fees for maritime traffic under a ceasefire memorandum. The key variable is whether the investment-focused approach will hold, or if renewed tensions—such as Iranian retaliation or a breakdown in Gulf negotiations—could revive the fee proposal. For now, the market reflects a strong consensus that the direct U.S. charge is off the table, but the fluid geopolitical situation means the possibility cannot be entirely dismissed. [Business Insider, Jul 13]

Traded on Polymarket — $53K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($53K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 9c YES.